Why it matters
Understanding the amount of SAF, renewable hydrogen, and renewable electricity needed to decarbonize aviation is essential to scale production and determine whether this progress is feasible.
What the energy strategy does
With the Energy strategy, you can evaluate the emissions reduction potential of different fuels for aviation — SAF, hydrogen, methane, and electricity. The carbon intensity of each fuel depends on how and where it’s produced. Carbon intensity is the amount of CO₂ released per unit of energy.
The composition and carbon intensity of SAF, hydrogen, methane, and electricity from the following sources are fully customizable in Cascade.
What’s included
SAF
SAF can be made from biological sources — fats, oils, and greases, sugars and starches, novel energy crops, wet wastes or dry wastes — or from electricity and hydrogen (e-SAF). The carbon intensity of e-SAF depends on the sources of electricity and hydrogen used.
Hydrogen
In Cascade, hydrogen can be produced from fossil sources such as natural gas — known as fossil hydrogen — or from water and electricity using electrolysis, known as renewable hydrogen. The carbon intensity of hydrogen depends on the source of electricity used and vapor loss management.
Methane
Methane¹ is an emerging fuel option for aviation. It can be produced from fossil sources, biomass, or electricity and hydrogen (e-methane). It can use many of the same biomass feedstocks as SAF and the carbon intensity of methane depends on the source used and vapor loss management.
Electricity
The carbon intensity of electricity depends on the mix of sources on the grid. Cascade distinguishes between fossil electricity (from coal, oil, or gas) and low-carbon electricity (from wind, solar, and nuclear). You can customize the grid composition to reflect different scenarios.
Zoom in
In addition to viewing the overall impact on emissions, you can perform analysis with charts available and test scenarios with differing quantities of SAF, electricity, and hydrogen required. These plots can be accessed from the chart icon in the upper left corner of the plot area.
How to Access our Selection of New Charts
For example, the total energy consumed directly by aircraft can be seen in the Energy consumption by fuel type chart. In the SAF focused technology-centric scenario from Waypoint 2050, almost 90% of the total energy used by aircraft comes from SAF by 2050.
Specifics for each energy type can be assessed further, such as how much SAF from each feedstock type is required based the assumptions made. By 2050, 125 billion gallons (472 billion liters) of SAF are required in this scenario.
It’s also possible to see how much electricity is required to produce the e-SAF shown in the previous chart. Here, electricity for SAF production accounts for about 90% of the 3,040 TWh of renewable electricity needed across aviation in 2050 — roughly a third of the total renewable electricity produced globally in 2023, according to the International Energy Agency.
Try It Out
With Cascade, the user can start from this scenario to understand the amount of biomass and electricity that might be needed in the future.
